3월 주식시장 상승세 둔화…중소형 건설사 PF대출 만기 리스크 등-NSP통신

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3월 주식시장 상승세 둔화…중소형 건설사 PF대출 만기 리스크 등

NSP통신, 김정태 기자, 2012-02-24 23:57 KRD5 R0

#3월주식시장 #우리투자증권 #건설사PF

[서울=NSP통신] 김정태 기자 = 3월 주식시장은 상승세가 둔화될 전망이다.

우리투자증권 리서치센터에 따르면, 3월은 불확실한 미래 수익보다 확정 수익 선호현상이 강해지는 확실성 효과(Certainty Effect)가 나타날 가능성이 높다.

김병연 우리투자증권 애널리스트는 3월에는 “일부 신용평가 등급이 낮은 중소형 건설사 위주로 PF 대출 만기에 따른 리스크 요인이 존재할 뿐만 아니라 유로존 관련 PIGS 채권만기 롤오버와 유럽은행 자본확충관련 우려 등이 상존하고 있다”고 말했다.

G03-8236672469

반면 김병연 애널리스트는 “주식시장의 상승 요인으로는 중국 모멘텀이 존재한다”며 “중국은 정치적 요인, 재정정책의 빠른 효과, 과거 소비촉진책의 학습효과를 감안한 내수부양을 기조로 한 경기부양책이 시행될 가능성이 높다”고 전망했다.

때문에 3월 주식시장은 상승요인과 하락요인이 팽팽히 맞서며 상승 각도는 둔화될 가능성이 높다는 분석.

이에 따라 3월 업종별 리밸런싱은 중국 모멘텀이 기대되는 소재주와 IT하드웨어주에 대한 추가 비중 확대 전략이 바람직하는 평가다.

소재주(철강/비철금속, 정유/화학)는 중국의 내수부양책 발표 기대에 따른 경기 턴어라운드 기대감을 반영한 것이고, IT하드웨어주 비중 확대는 이구환신을 대체할 IT소비관련 부양책이 발표될 가능성이 높기 때문이다.

특히 김병연 애널리스트는 “IT하드웨어 업종은 중국의 내수부양책이 보장형 주택 구매자 대상일 경우 중저소득층의 로엔드(low-end) 수요가 높아질 것으로 예상된다”며 “이는 중국 로컬업체 수혜와 함께 국내 IT부품 업체에 긍정적 모멘텀으로 작용할 것으로 보인다”고 말했다.

이에 따라 3월 모델포트폴리오의 업종별 비중은 철강/금속> IT하드웨어> 화학/소재> 자동차> 에너지 업종순으로 벤치마크대비 비중확대(Overweight)했다.

한편, 김병연 애널리스트는 “업종내 톱 픽스(Top picks)로는 세아베스틸, LG화학, 호남석유, SK이노베이션, 삼성전기, 서울반도체 등의 6개 종목이 선정했다”며 “이 종목은 철강, 화학/정유, IT하드웨어 업종 내에서 영업이익 전망치가 연초대비 증가하고, 2012년 순이익 추정치가 증가하며, PER, PBR 등의 밸류에이션 매력이 높은 종목을 추출한 결과다”고 밝혔다.