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주산연, 1월 전국 주택분양 경기 '흐림' 전망

NSP통신, 김지은 기자, 2022-01-18 13:32 KRD7 R0

#전국 분양 경기 #주택산업연구원(주산연) #1월 분양경기실사지수 #1월 분양물량 전망치 #HSSI

전국 HSSI 전망치 76.2, 전월비 12.2P 하락

2022년 1월 분양경기실사지수 전망 (주택산업연구원)

(서울=NSP통신) 김지은 기자 = 전국 분양 경기에 대한 부정적 인식이 증가하고 있다. 인천과 경기 등 수도권과 일부 지방 광역시의 전망치는 큰 폭으로 하락했다.

18일 주택산업연구원(주산연)이 발표한 1월 분양경기실사지수(HSSI) 자료에 따르면 전국 HSSI 전망치는 76.2로 전월대비 12.2포인트(p) 하락하며 70선을 기록했다.

서울은 전월대비 9.2p 하락한 85.0를 기록했다. 서울의 HSSI 전망치가 90선 아래로 떨어진 것은 2020년 10월 이후 15개월 만이다.

G03-8236672469

주산연은 “지난해와 같은 분양 호황이 이어지지 않을 것이라는 인식이 증가했다”며 “다만 서울의 풍부한 주택수요와 신규주택에 대한 선호도 등을 감안하면 추세적인 시장흐름은 이어갈 것”이라고 했다.

2021년 상반기 전국적으로 양호한 흐름을 이어가던 분양시장은 하반기부터 지역별 편차를 나타냈다. 상대적으로 공급이 풍부했던 인천, 경기와 일부 지방 광역시를 중심으로 사업자의 부정적 인식이 증가하고 있어 사업지역에 대한 세밀한 수급진단과 시장 모니터링, 사업다각화 방안 마련이 필요하다.

HSSI는 공급자 입장에서 분양을 앞두고 있거나 분양 중에 있는 단지의 분양여건을 종합적으로 판단하는 지표로 매달 주택사업자를 대상으로 조사한다. 기준치인 100을 넘으면 분양경기가 긍정적으로 전망된다는 의미이고, 100을 넘지 못하면 그 반대다.

수도권과 지방 HSSI 전망치도 하락했다. 수도권과 지방에서 모두 평균전망치 70선을 기록했으며 서울과 부산, 울산, 세종은 80~90선을 유지했으나 대구(39.1, 23.4p↓)와 대전(62.5, 37.5p↓), 광주(73.6, 15.8p↓)는 20~30p 하락하며 기준선을 크게 밑돌았다.

1월 분양물량 전망치는 전월대비 5.6p 하락한 97.2를 기록했다. 전월과 유사한 수준을 기록하며 정부의 공급위주 정책 기조가 지속되는 가운데 분양가상한제 심사기준이 구체화된 영향, 3월에 예정된 대선 이후 불확실성을 분양가상한제 심사기준이 구체화된 영향, 3월에 예정된 대선 이후의 불확실성을 최소화 하려는 심리 등으로 추세적인 공급물량은 유지할 것으로 전망된다.

이달 미분양 전망치는 전월대비 소폭 상승한 105.4를 기록했고 분양가격 전망치는 109.5를 나타내며 17개월째 기준선을 웃도는 전망치를 보이고 있다.