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[부산=NSP통신] 임창섭 기자 = 글로벌 금융위기와 유럽 재정위기가 종식되어 가고 있다는 신호는 나타나지 않고 있으며 미국 경제도 장기 국채 수익률 하락세가 지속되고 있어 기존 ‘상저하고’의 예상을 깨고 올 4분기 침체 가능성이 있다는 분석이 제기됐다.

국제금융센터 뉴욕사무소 이정훈 연구원은 최근 뉴욕 월가 유력 리서치 기관인 Encima Global ‘David Malpass 회장’의 최근 국제금융시장에 대한 시각을 주요 이슈로 보고하면서 “시장 컨센서스가 올해 세계 경제를 아직 상저하고로 전망하고 있는 것에 비해 Malpass는 다소 비관적인 시각이며 이는 최근 IMF와 美 연준의 성장 전망 하향 조정과 일맥상통하는 면이 있다”고 평가했다.

David Malpass 회장은 Bear Stearns社의 Chief Economist와 레이건 부시 행정부 관료를 역임앴으며 ‘Tea Party’운동을 지지하는 공화당 성향의 인사로 지난 2005년~2007년까지 “Institutional Investor”지가 발표한 이코노미스트 순위 2위를 차지한 인물이다.

이 보고서에 따르면 David Malpass 회장은 현재 유로존의 붕괴 여부가 세계 경제의 최대 리스크 요인으로 유럽 경제 침체가 가속화되고 있는 상황에서 ECB의 추가 금리인하가 예상되나 최근 드라기 총재의 언급을 감안할 경우 2월 중 인하는 없을 것으로 전망했다.

드라기 총재는 최근 “미약하지만 일부 지표에서 경제가 안정되고 있다는 신호가 나타난다”고 언급한 바 있다.

그러나 David Malpass 회장은 현재 유럽 은행들의 신용 위험이 계속 증가하고 있으며 금융 시스템 안정을 위한 대마불사(Too Big To Fail)의 상황하에서 아직 정책 당국이 해결의 실마리를 찾지 못하고 있다고 지적했다.

그는 ECB의 적극적인 지원이 필요한 때이며 시중은행 총자산 대비 중앙은행 자산의 비율이 10.1%로 미국의 23.4%에 비해 매우 낮아 이는 ECB의 역할이 더욱 확대될 수 있음을 의미한다고 평가했다.

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David Malpass 회장은 특히 미국 경제에 대한 회의적인 시각을 드러냈다.

그는 최근 미국 경제가 기업 이익 확대, 중소 기업의 고용 사정 개선 등 완만한 회복세를 보이고 있으나 올 4분기부터 침체 가능성도 존재하고 있다고 비관적으로 평가했다.

올 3분기 이후에는 경제 활력의 핵심인 가계 자산의 고갈과 소매업의 과당 경쟁에 따른 기업 수익 저하 등으로 경기침체 우려가 우려되며 중소기업의 자금조달 여건도 여의치 않아 기업 활동 부진으로 고용 개선도 지연될 전망이라고 내다봤다.

미국의 효율적인 재정정책 수행이 어려운 상황으로 평가하면서 재정적자 개선을 위한 예산삭감 노력에 대해서도 회의적인 견해를 피력했다.

반면 중국에 대해서는 최저 대출 금리의 인하 가능성과 지급 준비율 인하 등 정책적 대응에 힘입어 경제 경착륙을 예방할 수 있을 것으로 판단했다.

[보고원문]
David Malpass, President of Encima Global, was formerly Bear Stearns chief economist (ranked #2 in the Institutional Investor rankings from 2005-2007). He worked in the Reagan and Bush administrations from 1984 to 1993.
“Is the current economic and financial market situation more like 1981when the Fed was raising rates and inflation was stubbornly high resulting in downward pressure on the markets OR is it like 1982 when inflation and Fed policy had begun to shift downward?
The bell has not yet rung to say that we are at the end of the impacts of the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2011 European sovereign debt crisis.
US government bond yields should go up as a sign. The elements are in place for another historic bull market in US equities, for example, P/E? are very low. A breakup of the Euro is the biggest risk.
“US economic growth will slow materially from 4Q2011 to 1Q2012, perhaps to 1.5%. Europe? recession is deepening. The ECB is ready to cut rates, but that no longer is likely in February, as I previously thought, based on today? comments by ECB President Draghi.
The PBOC is to cut the minimum lending rate in the 1Q2012 and will continue reducing the reserve requirement, so China should avoid a hard landing. European banks are way, way too big to fail, but policymakers don? have a plan for dealing with it. The end result for financial markets is big short term risk-on rallies on good news, even if the end result will turn out grim.
This will be much like Japan since 1990, down markets punctuated by sharp rallies, because they never took the necessary policy steps.
“European bank risk is still elevated. Relative to the US, the Europeans have not done much stimulus yet (as shown in the table below). The ECB needs to be more aggressive. ?ow to downsize or deleverage the European banks??is the big question.
Three year bond yields are converging globally near zero. This is terrible policy.
Savers earn nothing. It leads to a rationing of credit in the US and Europe, such that small business can? get new funding, so job growth lags.

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(자료=국제금융센터 제공)

“Assets of Central Banks are going up a lot, but they are not printing money. Private sector credit is not up; it is dead flat. There is no extra credit because the Central Banks are sterilizing. Japan? central bank balance sheet expansion had no positive impact on economics.
Small banks?new business is barely budging in the US and Europe. This bad monetary policy which hurts growth is not going to change in 2012.
“US corporate profits are signaling expansion. The ADP survey shows that small business is starting to add jobs. World nominal GDP is slowing to 4% in 2012 versus 11% last year. A big letdown is underway in the profits platform for corporations. Interest rates are way too low. In nine months I might worry about recession in the US. The problem is people are eating their seed corn; household assets are being depleted to keep the economy going and some corporations, particularly in retail, have held on too long to too many stores, hoping for a holiday push that didn? come. If that causes corporate profits to actually begin to decline, a recession in the US could develop, but not for at least nine months. Nothing is going to stop the expansion of US government debt; all are figuring out how to expand government. Non-defense discretionary spending will not be cut; the budget deficit will continue to be $1.3 trillion.
“The US economy is in a deep hole due to too much government debt and spending. It can be changed quickly by policy. There is lots of cash on the sidelines which would be activated with good policy. Policymakers need to write the debt ceiling legislation so it stops excess spending. The Republicans made a big mistake with mixed up policy last summer by being willing to risk default. They will try to stand up again in 1Q2013, when they have to vote for it again. By doing so, they have risked control of the House in this year? elections. They are likely to win the Presidency and a majority in the Senate.
“Romney? economic plan is too big. He needs to have a clear narrow vision, to focus. He should talk more about stopping spending growth and reforming the tax code. It will be very hard to repeal ObamaCare; need positive constructive changes to it. There is no chance of tax reform getting done soon. It took a five year focus to get the 1986 tax law change. Romney? plan to put a 25% tariff on Chinese imports is only for the convenience of having an enemy during campaigns. Actual policy toward China will not change very much.”
Comments: In private, Malpass characterized himself as ? Tea Party Republican? The
speech was made to a large group of hi-tech investors at a conference hosted by managers who strongly favor the Republican Party. Malpass?stated business goal is ?o anticipate new investment theses and market inflection points”. That explains to me, why he began with a rhetorical question comparing the present with the early 1980?. In my opinion, the situation in the US is not like either 1981 or 1982. The real estate led financial crisis of 2008 was completely different from the stagflation that preceded Volcker? tightening and subsequent ease. The risk is that the current situation is more like Japan in the mid-?0?. While US fiscal and monetary policymakers have reacted more rapidly than their Japanese counterparts two decades ago, they have not been willing to put the system through the painful process of wringing out many of the problems, as in Korea during the Asian Crisis.
I believe Malpass is correct that the substantial cash on the sidelines provides the opportunity for good policy to relatively quickly improve the situation. Whether or not the same party wins control of the Presidency, the Senate and the House may determine if a significant improvement in US fiscal policy will be forthcoming. It is comforting that he is convinced that bad policy toward China is not likely.

임창섭 NSP통신 기자, news1@nspna.com
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